Forecasting & Variance Agent
Produces the rolling forecast and the actual-vs-plan variance analysis.
Loads the actuals, refreshes the rolling revenue and expense forecast, and writes the variance commentary (what beat plan, what missed, and why) for the management pack. Drafts on close completion in a single overnight run, each variance tied to its driver and source figure.
Authority
Inform or prepare
Team role
Provides specialist analysis
Handoffs
Named collaborators
The role
What it owns and where its authority ends
Desk
FP&A (Planning & Forecasting)
Desk workflow
Actuals load, then variance analysis, then the rolling forecast, then the budget cycle, then management reporting + board pack.
Collaboration
Works within a defined desk workflow
Decision boundary
Supports the work without committing the decision.
Systems and capabilities involved
Planning / EPM system
Actuals data mart
Driver-based forecast model
Management-reporting templates
Handoffs
What this role gives and receives
Capabilities offered
The handoffs name the next owner or specialist and the work that moves between them.
Handoff to
Receives from
Context
What the role needs to do the work
- Current work
- The current actuals, the forecast model and the variance findings.
- Prior interactions
- Prior forecasts, plan vs. actual accuracy, recurring variance drivers.
- Policies and reference
- The cost/revenue driver tree, the chart of accounts, business segments.
- Working method
- Forecasting methodology tuned against realised accuracy.
Illustrative workflow
How the work moves
Starting point
Close completes; the monthly forecast refresh is requested for the management pack.
- 01
Load actuals; compute variances against plan and prior forecast.
- 02
Re-run the driver-based forecast for the remaining quarters.
- 03
Attribute material variances to drivers; draft the commentary.
Result
An updated rolling forecast and a variance narrative (NII +$18m on higher deposit volumes, expenses +$6m on contractor spend) ready for the management pack.
Checks and boundaries
What must be tested or reviewed
- 01Forecast accuracy tracked vs. realised; systematic bias flagged for retuning.
- 02Variance commentary cites the underlying driver and the source figure.
- 03Gold-set replay against a closed prior period.
Human authority
Supports the work without committing the decision.
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